One of our core values here at Pinnacle Poker is evidence-based decision making.In this spirit, I will present you with some cold hard data about the potential win-rate gain that becomes available when upgrading from basic node-locking to MaxES-powered node-locking.
EV Comparison
The biggest problem that solver users face when studying is that the flop strategies, especially the ones for the in position player, show that all lines generate the same amount of EV.This intuitively makes no sense for us humans, and we are right. Those lines generate the same expected value if and only if the opponent plays exactly the same frequencies, with every single hand, across the entire game tree. Now that's an Oscar-worthy science-fiction movie scenario if I've ever seen one.In the following section, I will show you how, by modeling your real-life opponent's flop and turn tendencies using MaxES, you can precisely know which line is higher EV for each hand, straight from the flop.In the following example, I took a common postflop scenario, BBvBU SRP on an A72 rainbow flop.I modeled a passive-tight opponent with the following deviations from the GTO strategy for this particular board:1. Fold vs Flop C-bet +5%
2. Fold vs Turn Delayed C-bet +5%
3. Check-raise vs Flop C-bet -4%
4. Probe Turn -4%You can discern that weak hands will over-perform against this opponent type, but which lines actually generates higher EV?Is the the flop c-bet or the turn delayed c-bet?What about your vulnerable middle hands and your strong hands?How large is the EV gap?Let's find out...
The GTO strategy prefers to c-bet at a much higher frequency compared to the optimal strategy against our player model (58% vs 46%).The first hand classes that stand out are 7x and third pairs. They have a clear path forward due to a significant boost in EV in the betting line compared to the checking line (5-16bb/100).We can also see that some underpairs clearly prefer c-betting over checking back, specifically 88 and 99 (3-9bb/100).We can also see that unpaired hands with little showdown value (specifically medium to strong Qx) have significantly higher EV in the check line (5-10bb/100) and should thus be checked with.Now, I will let you draw the conclusions regarding the mechanics behind the EV shifts.I want you to keep in mind that this player model is not a complete one because its purpose was to show you the clarity that you can get by using MaxES, rather than providing a complete solutionOne limitation that this model has compared to a real-life opponent is that he is able to recalibrate for his flop and turn mistakes on the river. This will dampen the EV differences, but you will still get a higher EV path for all your hands than either the GTO strategy or the strategies resulting from the basic, single street node-locking which available with the current tools.
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