One of our core values here at Pinnacle Poker is evidence-based decision making.In this spirit, I will present you with some cold hard data about the potential win-rate gain that becomes available when upgrading to MaxES-powered node-locking.
EV Comparison
You often times see that the solver is indifferent between betting and checking on the flop and the turn with a large part of its range.Is that true?Those lines generate the same expected value if and only if the opponent plays exactly the same as the solver does.Same frequencies, with every single hand, across the entire game tree.Now that's an Oscar-worthy science-fiction movie scenario if I've ever seen one.In the following section, I will show you how, by modeling your real-life opponent's flop and turn tendencies using MaxES, you can precisely know which line is higher EV for each hand, straight from the flop.Scenario:BBvBU SRP on an A72 rainbow flopPlayer Profile:Passive-tight opponent.Deviations according to data (relative to GTO):1. Fold vs Flop C-bet +5%2. Fold vs Turn Delayed C-bet +5%3. Check-raise vs Flop C-bet -4%4. Probe Turn -4%Let's look at how the actual optimal strategy looks like:
Optimal adjustments:- Lower the c-bet frequency from 58% to 46%- Always bet with vulnerable made hands - they have a clear path forward as the EV of the betting line is 3-16bb/100 higher than the EV of the checking line. This happens because letting a passive (and under-bluffing) opponent realize his equity for free when your hand is vulnerable and could have value-bet itself is sub-optimal.- Always check back with unpaired hands that have good showdown value - specifically medium to strong Qx and Kx have significantly higher EV in the check line (5-10bb/100). This happens because the opponent will be letting these hands realize their equity for free too often on the turnLimitations:- the player model is incomplete. The opponent's deviations against a double barrel and his river tendencies were not accounted for. The purpose was to show you the clarity that you can get by using MaxES, rather than providing a complete solution.
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